Monday â€“ Corn, Silver, Copper
Tuesday â€“ Wheat, Soybeans, Bean oil, S&P, Dow Jones, British pound
Wednesday â€“ Coffee
Thursday â€“ Cattle, Corn, Eurocurrency
Friday â€“ Coffee
Swing Trading with Market Timing intelligence
The most important element of a successful swing trading approach is market timing of both entry and exits. In this educational newsletter, you will learn to predict, identify, and trade short-term swing trading opportunities using a unique swing trading â€œmarket timing intelligenceâ€ methodology. Veteran futures trader and best-selling author John Crane combines his highly acclaimed â€œAction/Reactionâ€ market timing methods with a selective set of Elliott Wave and Fibonacci principles to analyze the market action and project future market swings.
Swing trading and Reversal dates
Every good trading signal needs three key elements to be considered a successful swing-trading signal, Time, Price and Pattern. When these three come together, great things can happen. If you can improve your timing or price entry, it can enhance any trading method.Â That is what the Reversal Dates can do for you. They will identify when the market should react, and at what price level the market needs to be for this to happen. They will even tell you what the market has to do to confirm the trade.Â The first thing I do is, identify Time.
The Reversal Date Indicator consists of three parts.Â The first is Time. This is identified by the projected Reversal date and will indicate which markets are ready to react and when the reaction should occur. The most common misconception about the Reversal dates is the idea that the market must reverse on every signal date, which is not true.Â Instead, the Reversal Date itself helps to identify the marketâ€™s reaction. A high percentage of the time, the market will reverse the current trend, but not always. A smaller percentage of the time, the market will form a â€œcontinuation pattern,â€ indicating the market will likely continue in the same direction as the prevailing trend. Often this will occur during a consolidation or after a very small correction.
Once the Reversal date has been identified, the next thing to do is monitor the price. If the market is making a new high/low, or if it is trading inside a buy/sell window, then the second component of a trade signal is in place. You now have Time and Price working together. For most traders, that will be enough, but the Reversal Date Indicator takes it one step further.
After extensive research into price patterns, I have identified specific price patterns, which occur during reversal timing. These patterns can be used to confirm the market reversals or market continuations. When and only when, these three components are all working together, will there be a swing trade signal generated.
For more information on our Reversal Date Indicator, or should you have a specific market question, please call us at 1-800-521-0705
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Traders Market Views is a product of Traders Network and all statements herein reflect Traders Networkâ€™s market research.Â Traders Network and/or its principals, brokers and employees may or may not have established positions in part or all of the markets herein mentioned.Â It is possible that some of those positions, if any, are in direct conflict with the market commentary herewith.
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY CONTRACTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL.Â YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.Â HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES.
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Dr. Alan Andrews stated that when a median line (the white center line) is drawn, from the most recent swings,Â the price should return to the medain lineÂ 80% of the time. This median line can be used as a target objectiveÂ where the market will often form a new pivot. October Cattle first tested theÂ median lineÂ Â on July 21 when it traded to a high of 95.02. After a second test, on the followingÂ day, Cattle reversed, forming a high pivotÂ and droppedÂ to the 20-day EMA, trading as low as 93.25 on July 29. So far,Â the market had beenÂ following price behavior described by Dr. Alan Andrews.
He also stated that when a price returns to the median line the price will often form several small swings around the median lineÂ where it will touch or cross the line more than once before moving on.Â OctoberÂ CattleÂ tested the median line for the second time on AugustÂ 2 and crossedÂ above the line on August 4, only to back off and drop below the line on August 10.Â So far,Â so good.Â The market is behaving according to the plan. But, this is where it gets interesting. Â Each time Cattle crossed above the ascending median line, the market would pull back and close near the median.Â It was not until August 18 when CattleÂ posted a strong close with good separation from the median line. This was another Â "market tell" that CattleÂ are ready toÂ resume the upward trend with a new target objective at the upper parallel line. Remember, price willÂ continue to move towards the nearest line 80% of the line. In this case the upper parallel line is the new objective.
Understanding market behavior can and will alert you to trading opportunities andÂ allow you to be aware if the market is behaving correctlyÂ so you can take advantageÂ of this behavior.Â It is all between the lines.Â Learn more about using 'action-reaction"Â lines and swing trading strategies at www.tradersnetwork.com.
By John Crane
Monday â€“ Hogs, Wheat, Soybeans, British pound, Coffee
Tuesday â€“ Canadian dollar, Sugar
Wednesday â€“ RBOB gas, Gold, Treasury bonds
Thursday â€“ Crude oil
Friday â€“ Natural gas, Heating oil
Monday â€“ Cattle, Soybeans, Gold, Cocoa, Coffee
Tuesday â€“ S&P, British pound
Thursday â€“ Crude oil, Natural gas, Treasury bonds, Dow Jones, Australian dollar, Coffee
Friday â€“ Cocoa
Twenty days after posting a highÂ near the April 21st reversal date, July Soybeans reached the up-sloping reaction target line. The daily low of $9.31Â tested the reaction line before finding support and rebounding to unchanged. ThisÂ completes the five-wave cycle as the Soybeans reach the target objectiveâ€“projected two weeks in advanceâ€“on the projected reversal date. While the long-term trend is still bearish, the short-term cycle suggests a possible corrective rebound from this level. Iâ€™ll have current updates in the TMV Swing Trade report.
The reverse-forward count, fromÂ the TR swing pattern (March 17 â€“ April 4), was used toÂ project a future reversal swing date on May 6th. The â€œaction-reactionâ€ line also forecast a price target objective at the intersectionÂ of theÂ down-sloping median line and the up-sloping reaction line (8920). The Swiss francÂ Â breached the target objective on the predicted date and quickly reversed and surged higher.Â You can also learnÂ to useÂ the â€œaction-reactionâ€ methodology used to make this type of time and price projections in â€œUnlocking Wealth, Secret to Market Timing.
June Heating oil rallied off the low, posted on the April 28 reversal swing date. The marketÂ had dipped down into the reversal date,Â with two lower closes, leading into the pivot low. After finding support from the lower up-sloping action line, Heating oil ended the corrective pullback and turned higher. The new Â upward thrust is pushing the market out of the cconsolidation pattern where it has beenÂ trading over the past three weeks. The market should have built up enough energy to break out of the pattern and begin the new upward swing into the next reversal date on May 7th. This reaction swing pattern also projects a price target objective at 2.4250.
How to find and use the reaction swing pattern to make future Time and Price projections for swign trading is covered in the book â€œUnlocking Wealth, Secret to Market Timing.â€
On April 5th, July Soybeans posted aÂ low close of $945 1/4 inside the 60% buy window. Two days later,Â Soybeans rallied out of the buy window and traded through the trigger price for a long entry signal. The reverse/forward count projected a new upward price swing ofÂ twelve days from the low closeÂ from April 5th.Â I also used theÂ count to project a targetÂ objective at the down-slopingÂ reaction (red)Â line. After the buy signal was triggered, July Soybeans rallied over 60 cents into the April 21st reversal date and touched the down sloping reaction line -Â at $10.17 â€“ on the followingÂ (trail) day. Soybeans reversed at the reaction line and are currently trading sharply lower. By understanding how to use the â€œaction-reactionâ€ price behavior IÂ could have Â identified the target objectives two weeks in advance. To learn more about this trading technique read â€œUnlocking Wealth, Secret to Market Timingâ€.
July Cocoa - When July Cocoa dipped into the 60% buy window on April 12th, the RT Swing Trader program triggered a buy signal for the July Cocoa at 2934. As soon as the buy signal was triggered, the RT Swing Trader identified April 26th as the projected reversal swing date and placed the reaction target objective at the 3200 to 3250 price objective. As you can see for the chart below, during the following eleven trading days, Cocoa rallied from the entry price at 2934 and finally reached the reaction line target objective of 3228 on the projected reversal swing date of April 26th. This is a prime example of how understanding how to use the action-reaction methodology and being able to identify the proper set up pattern can be used to enhance any trading approach. If you do not have the time to do the proper analysis, the RT Swing Trader will do it for you.