RT Swing Trader Blog | News
1Dec/090

Big move ahead in Coffee? When an where it will be going. [chart]

According to the Dow Jones Newswires, Colombia's Federation of Coffee Growers said that the coffee crop will total 8.1 million bags in 2009, down from 11.5 million bags in 2008. The chart pattern gave notice of this shortfall several days ago when the market bottomed on day after November 11th reversal swing date. Coffee has rallied off the November 11th low and traded above the 20-day MA and formed a bullish TR swing pattern. This pattern projects a move to the reaction target line, currently resting at 152.00, on or before the December 14th reversal swing date. Look for any pullback as buying opportunity. I will have specific buying instructions in the TMV Swing trading report. Anyone who would like a free trial subscription you can sign up at www.tradersnetwork.com.

March Coffee

March Coffee

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30Oct/090

Sugar is building energy for next big move

March Sugar – Sugar is in the final stage of completing a 5-wave continuation pattern. If you are not familiar with this pattern you can see that same type of pattern in the Heating oil and Crude oil, just before the latest rally. The current pullback could reach the 60% buy window (22.55) before turning higher. Even with the pullback, the market is still within the parameters of the bullish pattern. – Buy Sugar at 22.95 stop with the stop loss below the pivot low.

March Sugar

March Sugar

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29Oct/090

December Cotton triggers TC pattern buy

10/29/09 - *:30 am MST - The four-day correction ended when Cotton found support at the 20- day SMA and the upward sloping parallel line.

December Cotton

December Cotton

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23Oct/090

March Sugar – poised to rally

March Sugar – Sugar is in the final stage of completing a 5-wave continuation pattern. If you are not familiar with this pattern you can see that same type of pattern in the Heating oil and Crude oil, just before the latest rally. The current pullback could reach the 60% buy window (22.55) before turning higher. Even with the pullback, the market is still within the parameters of the bullish pattern. – Buy Sugar at 24.27 stop with the stop loss below the pivot low.

March Sugar

March Sugar

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21Oct/090

Bullish swing pattern forming in March Sugar

10/21/09 - 7:50 am MST - March Sugar is moving out of a longer-term A-B-C continuation pattern. The market rallied off the October 9th low and traded above the 20-day MA.  Sugar then pulled back to retest the 20-day MA where it has formed a bullish swing trade "setup". A trade above 24.39 will trigger a buy and new bullish leg to this upward trend.

March Sugar

March Sugar

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20Oct/090

December Cotton

December Cotton – Long from 65.60 – last price @ 66.47 – The possibility of improving weather conditions pressured the December Cotton future on Monday. The market traded above high of Friday’s “inside day” early in Monday’s session, but began to fade into the close. This could lead to more downside pressure in the near term, so I suggest moving the stop loss up to 66.25.

December Cotton

December Cotton

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14Oct/090

December Cotton ready to surge higher.

December Cotton - Rain continues to fall in Texas and around the Mississippi River Delta. The Palmer Drought map already shows excessively moist conditions in Arkansas and Mississippi. The wet weather is causing concern for the cotton crops and triggered a late session rally. Cotton traded out of a two-month consolidation pattern and closed above the previous swing highs. The market may test the new support (old resistance) and offer a good buying opportunity.  Buy cotton at 65.60 or lower, with the stop loss at 63.25.

December Cotton

December Cotton

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30Sep/090

December Cotton

9/30/09 - Cotton prices rebounded slightly, following the biggest decline in six weeks on Sept. 25. The market was supported by a report that showed falling production in China, the biggest importer of the cotton fiber. The price decline found support at the 20-day SMA and rebounded slightly on Monday.  Buy Cotton at 64.75 stop, with a stop loss at 61.60.

December Cotton

December Cotton

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29Sep/090

December Cotton

9/29/09 - Cotton prices rebounded slightly, following the biggest decline in six weeks on Sept. 25. The market was supported by a report that showed falling production in China, the biggest importer of the cotton fiber. The price decline found support at the 20-day SMA and rebounded slightly on Monday.  Buy Cotton at 64.75 stop, with a stop loss at 61.60.

Blog_Image_cotton

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28Aug/090

What happened with Cocoa?

8/28/09 - Not every trade works out, but we can learn a lot from our losers. Sometimes it just reminds us of

December Cocoa

December Cocoa

what we already knew. I posted a chart with a buy recommendation on August 2oth. The market had traded lower and reversed inside the 60% followed by a wide range bar. It took four days before the market reached the breakout point to trigger a buy. However, the buy was triggered one day before the projected swing trade date (reversal date) and the market closed at a new high and at the top of the daily range. This is the type of pattern that I usually look for in a potential reversal pattern. The trail day (the day following the reversal date) closed lower than the open, warning of a possible swing pattern failure. The next day the market collapsed.  Lesson learned...again.

However, keep watching this market, it is doing some interesting things right now.

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