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The reverse-forward count, fromÂ the TR swing pattern (March 17 â€“ April 4), was used toÂ project a future reversal swing date on May 6th. The â€œaction-reactionâ€ line also forecast a price target objective at the intersectionÂ of theÂ down-sloping median line and the up-sloping reaction line (8920). The Swiss francÂ Â breached the target objective on the predicted date and quickly reversed and surged higher.Â You can also learnÂ to useÂ the â€œaction-reactionâ€ methodology used to make this type of time and price projections in â€œUnlocking Wealth, Secret to Market Timing.
Tuesdayâ€™s one-day rally stopped shortÂ by the 20- day SMA and the down-sloping reaction line.Â TheÂ yen reversed at the two levles of resistanceÂ and resumed the dominate downward trend. This should set the stage for the next swing lower into the May 6th reversal swing date.
Canadaâ€™s dollar once again approached parity with its U.S. Dollar after Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said the currencyâ€™s rise has been â€œorderlyâ€ and reflects the countryâ€™s good fiscal position. This has effectively ended the three-day pullback to the median line and set up a new bullish reaction swing pattern. I look for the market to continue higher into the April 15th reversal swing date.
The sell recommendation made in the March 24, issue of the Traders Market Views was triggered at 1.1019 in the overnight session. The market has contnued to trade lower under heavy pressure and has reached the descending median line target objective at 1.0879. Â This is the initial target objective and typically offers support after a wide range day. This is a good place to step out of the trade, bank the nice one-day gain and wait for a bounce to form a new reaction swing sell pattern.
June Swiss franc â€“ The Swiss franc is beginning to exhibit a show of strength on speculation that the central bank will begin relaxing a year-old policy of selling the currency to curb its strength. The market has formed a bullish reaction swing with a retest of the 20-day SMA on Monday. This is a potentially bullish â€œsetupâ€ with a trigger price at .9527. A confirmation of this reaction swing could also mark the end of the longer-term A-B-C continuation pattern and the beginning of a new bullish leg. Check the latest issue of the Traders Market Views Swing Trading report for current recommendations.
The Dollar index began to show weakness when it moved away from the ascending median line. However, it was not until the Dollar reached the sloping reaction line target objective on the February 23rd reversal date that the bullish cycle was complete.Â A retest of the reaction line on Wednesday failed and the market turned lower. I look for the trend to shiftÂ over the next few days and formÂ a possible TR swing pattern and selling opportunity.
In the last issue of the Traders Market ViewsÂ (February 19, 2010) I talked about the triple top formation that had formed inÂ the dollar indiexÂ over the past several days. The pattern formed at the end of the cycle, but Â just below the reaction line target objective. I said the market should tade above the triple top and challenge the reaction lineÂ before the reversal timing could kick in. The dollar did reach a new high of 81.43 during Fridayâ€™s session and tested the reaction line objective before turning lower. The market hit the reaction line on the weak side of the ascending median line suggestiongÂ a loss of momentum at the end of the trend.Â I look for the dollar to begin froming a new TR pattern leading to a shift in the trend over the next few days. I will have an update in the next issue of the Traders Market Views.
The March Japanese yen has just completed a 5-wave continuation pattern, inside the longer-term downward trend. This type of pattern in a mid-trend pattern andÂ suggestsÂ downward trendÂ should continueÂ over the long-term, but right now I want to talk about the 5-wave pattern just completed.
The upward swing began on December 31, after a failed swing pattern formed a new A-B pattern. The Yen rallied off this low and formed a (C) to (D) reaction swing between 1/15 and 1/20, justÂ above the 20- day SMA. This swing pattern was the balancing point of the upward swing (where the action segment ends and the reaction segment begins) and could have been used to pinpoint the time and price of the subsequent price move.Â This was done with reverse count from 1/15 to the beginning of the cycle (marked as A). The countÂ equaled 11 days. That number was used to make the forward projection of time and price byÂ projecingÂ forward 11 daysÂ from 1/20Â (marked as D).Â February 24th was the projected reversal date and the end of the cycle with a initial target objective at the sloping reaction line.
As the February 24th reversal date approached it look dim for theÂ Â time/price projection as the market drifted lower intoÂ February 24th. On the reversal swing day, the market surged to a new high and peaked on the projected date. The short-term corrective swing wasÂ complete and the market turned lower, to resume the prevailing trend. TheÂ long-term bearish cycleÂ should continue into end of the cycleÂ projected forÂ mid March.Â Iâ€™ll have more on the longer-term downward trend, with time and price projections later.
The British pound broke support and triggered the sell suggested by the January 26th bearish reversal swing date. The market has now moved out of a A-B-C continuation pattern and resumed the longer-term downward trend. The next reversal swing date is projected for February 3 with a target objective at 1.5825. I will keep you updated of any changes in the TMV Swing Trade report.