November Crude oil â€“ The bullish EIA report was all that was needed to accelerate the current rally in Crude oil. The market has closed higher six days in a row, as it continues to climb towards the descending reaction line target objective and the October 16th reversal date, projected several days earlier. Crude oil is poised to reach the target objective, where the time and price indicators converge at 78.50 on October 16th or 17th.Â If long, it is time to tighten stops or look to bank the gains. The long-term cycle is still bullish, but the market is setting up for a much-needed correction to reset the market before the next upward swing.
December Soybean oil â€“ Bean oil was a late arrival to the recent bullish trends in the soy complex, but the pattern is a good one. Tuesdayâ€™s pullback is providing an opportunity to enter a long position before bean oil resumes the upward trend.Â Buy bean oil at 35.59 or lower, with a stop loss at 34.20.
November Heating oil â€“ Long from 1.8495Â â€“ last price 1.9248 - Heating oil continued to trade higher off the bullish TR swing pattern and has closed higher four days in a row. I look for the market to continue to trade towards the ascending upper reaction line with a target objective at 1.9650.Â Hold the long position and move the stop loss to 1.8655.
November Heating oil â€“ Long from 1.8495Â â€“ last price @ 19231 - Heating oil surged out of the bullish TR swing pattern on Monday and closed above the (C) pivot high for the second day in a row. That is a positive indicator for heating oil to make a run for the short-term ascending reaction line target objective of 1.9700. Â Â Hold the long position, with the stop loss at 1.8495.
10/9/09 - 8:05Â am MST - The bullish TR swing pattern buy signal was triggered after November Heating oil traded through the 1.8625 trigger price. The reverse/forward count project future reversal swing dates for 10/22 and 10/28 with the target objective of 2.0800.
November Crude oil â€“ Long from 7098 â€“ last price @ 7095 - Several sources are citing unconfirmed reports that oil producing states, like Saudi Arabia, were talking to their customers about switching payments to a currency other than the dollar, possibly the euro. So far, officials are denying the rumor.
In the last update, I said, â€œthe fundamental information is bearish, as jobs losses are mounting and oil supplies are rising. All the recent economic data is undermining the bull's oil case, but the chart patterns are saying something different to me. The market is forming a bullish TR swing pattern at the end of a 5-wave continuation pattern. Crude dipped below the 20-day SMA for a short time during the trading session, but closed above the SMA.â€ Soon after, the news story about the â€œAttack on the Dollarâ€ came out and the Crude oil began to move higher. The trigger price was reached to confirm the buy signal. Â Hold the long Crude oil, with the stop loss at 68.03.
10/5/09 - November Heating oil â€“ Heating oil has formed a bullish TR (trend reversal) swing pattern at the end of a 5-wave continuation pattern. Â Â Buy Heating oil at 1.8210 stop, with the stop loss at 1.7375.
10/5/09 - November Crude oil â€“The fundamental information is bearish, as jobs losses are mounting and oil supplies are rising. All the recent economic data is undermining the bull's oil case, but the chart patterns are saying something different to me. The market is forming a bullish TR swing pattern at the end of a 5-wave continuation pattern. Crude dipped below the 20-day SMA for a short time during the trading session, but closed above the SMA. Â Â Buy Crude at 70.96 stop, with a stop loss at 68.03.
10/2/09 - November Crude oil â€“ I guess the reversal swing date on September 29th was a lot stronger than I anticipated. I was looking at the formation as a possible TC swing pattern (Trend continuation) that could trigger another sell signal, if Crude oil traded below the low pivot point and the descending centerline. However, it seems the Crude oil had traded right into area of confluence where the descending centerline was crossed by the ascending reaction line. This price area proved to be a strong support and acted as a launching pad for the subsequent $3.90 one-day rally in November Crude oil.Â The pattern from August 8th thru September 29th appears to be forming a five-wave continuation pattern that portends a possible breakout to the upside. Before that can happen, I look for a two or three-day pullback to 67.70 to form the final stage of the TR swing pattern.
9/30/09 - A bearish reaction swing pattern has formed on the descending centerline. This pattern follows the recent 3-wave continuation pattern completed on September 21. (This type of continuation pattern typically appears in the center of the reaction cycle and would project a move down to 1.6000).Â Â Sell Heating oil at 1.6855 stop, with the stop loss at 1.7455.