June Heating oil rallied off the low, posted on the April 28 reversal swing date. The marketÂ had dipped down into the reversal date,Â with two lower closes, leading into the pivot low. After finding support from the lower up-sloping action line, Heating oil ended the corrective pullback and turned higher. The new Â upward thrust is pushing the market out of the cconsolidation pattern where it has beenÂ trading over the past three weeks. The market should have built up enough energy to break out of the pattern and begin the new upward swing into the next reversal date on May 7th. This reaction swing pattern also projects a price target objective at 2.4250.
How to find and use the reaction swing pattern to make future Time and Price projections for swign trading is covered in the book â€œUnlocking Wealth, Secret to Market Timing.â€
The International Energy Agency said that it expects world oil demand to average 86.6 million barrels per day (mbd) in 2010, slightly more than the previous record high of 86.5 mbd in 2007.
Crude zoomed through the ascending median line and closed above the prior swing high of 85.43 on April 6th. From this new high, Crude oil dropped back to the support provided by the up-sloping median line and the 20-day SMA. This price action has formed a bullish reaction swing above the median line, and setÂ up a potential upward price move towards the reaction line target objective, currently at 90.00.
N-gas has completed a 5-wave contiuuation pattern. This pattern typically forms in the center of a longer-term trend. (I describe this pattern on page 158 in â€œUnlocking Wealth, Secret to Market Timing). This would suggest N-gas is at the beginning of a new upward swing that could equal or surpass the price swing from December 3 to December 24. You can see a similar pattern in the Crude oil prior to the $13.00 rally late in 2009. I will keep you updated on the N-gas in the TMV Swing Trade report.
March N-gas tested the descending median line and 20-day SMA and turned lower. The market has completedÂ bearish reaction swing pattern and "double cross " moving average sell signal. The reverse/forward count projects the market to fall to the reaction target objective at 4.600 or or before the February 4 reversal swing date.
Crude staged a strong 10-day rally offÂ the bullish TR swing pattern (marked as A-B-C-D). The upward price swing ended after Crude traded above the prior high (E). From the new high, Crude traded lower and reached the 20-day SMA and tested the upward sloping parallel line support, on the projected reversal swing date. After an push down to 78.80, early in the session,Â the market reversed and began to climb higher. During the early morning dip, crude also traded through the 20- day SMA before turning higher and trading through the 20- day SMA for the second time. I call this a "double cross" pattern and it is a early entry signal that the upward trend is ready to resume. Get ready for one more run higher and a test of the (E) pivot high. This may be the last hurrah for the crude, but it still offers a good buying opportunity.
February N-gas has formed a possible continuation pattern at the ascending median line. The market dipped below the prior swing low on Thursday, December 31st, but found support at the 20- day SMA. The new year began with a sharply higher open and a trade above the prior day's high. This has set up a possible thrust pattern that could trigger a new bullish leg for the N-Gas. I will keep you updated in the TMV Swing Trade report.
After trading lower for two weeks, the Euro reached the reaction line target objective, one day after the projected reversal swing date. The time and price projections were may two weeks earlier using the Action/Reaction Market Timing Intelligence method.
â€“ Crude oil found support at the descending median line and traded up to the 20-day SMA. The market has since pulled back to test the newly drawn upward trending parallel line. Although the trend is still down, it is losing momentum and may be beginning to shift. If the Crude respects the lower parallel line and turns higher, it will set up a bullish TR swing trading pattern and possible buy signal. â€“ Buy the Crude oil at 75.20 stop with a stop loss under the pivot low.
7:30 am MST - After completing a five-wave continuation pattern the January Crude oil is is the last stage of forming a bullish TR swing pattern. This market timing pattern typically appears at the end of a trend or significant correction and marks the beginning of the next market leg. The two lower closes posted on Wednesday and Thursday failed to make a new low before reversing and trading above the previous day's high. This is setting up for a good swing trading opportunity on this pullback. A confirmation of the TR swing pattern would portend a rally to $85.00. I will be posting the reversal swing dates in the next issue of the Traders Market Views
Over the past 26 days, Crude oil has been trading in a sideways to lower consolidation pattern. During Friday's wide range day, Crude dipped into the 60% buy window, but quickly rebounded into the close. This price action completed the 5-wave continuation pattern that typically leads to a significant price move. Each of the two prior reversal swing dates triggered rallies of $3.50 and $4.60. However, with the 5-wave continuation pattern completed, this market is poised to break out for a significant price move with a initial target objective of $85.00. The next reversal swing date is due on December 2. The market will need to trade lower into this date to set up the buy signal. This can be a very powerful swing trading strategy. I will keep you informed aout any new signals.