Swing Trading and Market Timing Knowledgebase

By: John Crane, swing trading guru

Swing Trading Japanese Yen

Figure # 2.23 - A major pivot low was confirmed on October 6 when December Japanese yen hit a low of .9617 (B), followed by a day with a higher close. A bullish wide range day followed and closed above the 20-day SMA. The next trading day was a Monday, but the futures market was closed for a holiday. Tuesday’s session was a narrow range day and the close was below Friday’s close. This futures market caught my attention because a bullish Reaction swing strategy was forming above the 20-day SMA and above the 60% retracement level. Since the futures market timing did not pullback far enough to confirm a TR-1 pattern, I considered this a TR-2 pattern so the buy stop should be placed above the pivot high of .9182, marked (C).

jy chart
Figure # 2.23 – December 2004 Japanese Yen

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**THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES.