Swing Trading and Market Timing Knowledgebase

By: John Crane, swing trading guru

End of the Cycle

The one thing most all failed swing patterns have in common is that they typically occur at the end of a cycle. For example, a TR pattern will usually unfold in a five-wave pattern sequence that consists of a thrust, pause, a second thrust, which is usually the most powerful price move of the trend, followed by another pause leading into the final thrust into completion of the cycle. The initial thrust begins from the major low marked as (B)—see Figure # 6.15—followed by a pause or correction, marked as (C) to (D). The second and usually most powerful futures market timing thrust is followed by another pause before the third and final thrust into (E). It is at this point that the likelihood of a swing pattern failure will occur. The same scenario follows the Swing Trading Strategy TC pattern with the likelihood of a failed swing pattern increasing after every Reaction swing that follows the completion of the Swing Trading Strategy TC pattern at (G).

After the completion of the Swing Trading Strategy TC pattern the trend is usually reaching maturity and losing momentum. Every new Reaction swing that forms after the Swing Trading Strategy TC pattern increases the risk of a major futures market timing reversal. Knowing this ahead of time can help you avoid major trading disasters and offer significant trading opportunities. The following examples illustrate the swing pattern failure in action.

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**THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD, THEREFORE, CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES.